Patrick Stock Reading

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Correction

Share my view with a forumer yesterday on Advance Holding and told him in genreal to stay out and to review it after a day or two.

Well, went on site visit and unable to monitor the market. Upon return to the office in the evening, checked the counter and was “????”. Guessing that it will go down or at least move side way instead it went up by 2cts compare with the day before.

Continue to check star hub price, SHOCKED, up 0.29 cts from it low. How this could be happening, I’m waiting at the bottom and it went up so high. Feel like "xyz" the guy, but come to my senses. It could be a typo error or clicking on the wrong counter. I did it once and pay the price. If this is the case, the price is rather high man.

I fired all my available bullet into the market last week and cash out part of my holding now waiting again.

Generally, guess that the market is still finding it footing to stabilize, for those without holding power it is best to watch then fighting in the battle field and "got killed". The rest of the week can relax and review the counters you are interest in and till next week "STANDBY FOR ACTION."

Happy trading :D

Monday, May 29, 2006

Stochastics, overbrought, oversold

Stochastics is an indicator I uses very often to guide my entry and exit for my trading, but I won't follow it "strictly" till now. because price could goes higher even at the high of overbrought zone and at oversold zone, the low could be lower.

MACD is added for a confirmation, but both indicators never seem to agreed, at times, it add t my confusion. When confronted with a mixed signal, usually reacted by not reacting on entry or exit.

Had concluded that stochastics and MACD may provide guide to our trading but it is not a sure fire indicator. Read somewhere, it highlighted that price and volume will gives a better indication as to what the market is doing.

It seem like telling us that monitoring is inevitable if you're coming in to play. OK, now what? maybe more indicators will further enhance the reading of a counter. hehe...may be more confusion...

Happy trading. :D

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Eh...Well

I was taken aback when I check my mail box and was informed my adsense acct was disable. Well what can I said, thanks to the contributor lor.

I visited all the site in my link, and many are suffering the same faith as me, of course I do knew that some have this faith sealed earlier. Whatever, as one blogger adviced, just leave it behind us and concentrate on our investment and our job. You are right stockhunter. Thanks for the advice.

Read a report by CIMB dated on 25.05.06 this morning on Singapore strategy. In this report it had highlighted that the current correction had caught many unexpectedly although peoples was expecting it coming. Reasons gaven for the fast and furious correction for the pasted two weeks are further rate hikes in the US, high oil price, and high commodity prices, in additional to asia curriencies appreciating against the dollar which have raised worries on export competitivenss. Nevertheless, it when on to recommends their three action plan as follows
1. Search for high yields, flee to safety
2. Look for stocks tht address today's inflation concerns
3. Bottom-pick stocks tht offer share-price catalysts

1. Flee to safety- CIMD recommended four high-yield stocks which in their viewcan offer safety, they are
- SPH - SPH is monopoly whose YTD underperformance and yeilds of 7% making it attractive. It initiated a share buyback of 1.8m earlier the week.
- Jaya - supported by sime Darby's call option to acquire more shares inthe company at S$1.20 per share. Jsys's managment also had a put option at S$1.10, exerciseable at between mid sept 06 and mid Nov-06 and is expecting to announce geneous dividends in sept 06.
- Inter-Rolle - proxy for the rise in airport infrastructure spending. With good results and strong cash flowm it had started to reward shareholders with interim dividends and stock split.
- SMRT - a safety stock, with predictable earnings and high dividend yields.

2. Look for stocks that address today's inflation concerns, CIMB recommendation is
- Keppel Corp and SembCorp Marine - both have benefits from the prevailing positive demand - supply trends in the rig-building space. Rig prices have risen 59% in the pasted two year and is more than offset higher steel prices.
- Keppel Land - is their top pick as the firmly believe that landloads have much leewy to raise prices going forward.
- Fibrechem and Sinomem - were picked among the china stock as they remain keen on companies tht help their customers lower their costs and compete.

3. Bottom-pick stocks that offer shar-price catalysts, CIMB name the following for short-term catalysts, and they preferred stocks that had fallen significantly in the last sell-down as well.
- Longcheer - on outsourcing story with attractive valuations
- Labroy - had corrected more than 13% back to the level when it first nnounced its jack-up contract wins. CIMB is expecting more jackup contact for the next six month.
- Jurong Tech - a big underperformer on the back of uncertainties regarding its Maxtor business. CIMB thinks the stock is attractive agian with current valuations.
- Sekun - have good earning visibility and healty volume increases since Seagate-Maxtor merger.
- Unisteel - offer steady growth prospects and industry-leading ROEs. The recent correction has provided entry opportunities again although valuation used to be onthe lofty side previously.

As usual the analyst of CIMB Kenneth Ng who prepared this report need a disclaim clause and is open to the holding on the stocks he had analyze. Below are the detail



(i) As of 23 May 2006, CIMB-GK and its affiliates have a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
(a) Singapore Press, Inter-Roller Engr., Jaya Holdings, SMRT Corp, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, SembMarine, Longcheer, Jurong Tech, Seksun and Unisteel.

(ii) As of 23 May 2006, CIMB-GK and its affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
(b) Fibrechem and Labroy Marine.

(iii) As of 24 May 2006, the analyst, Kenneth Ng who prepared this report, does not own and does not have an interest in the securities in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report.
(c) Singapore Press, Jaya Holdings, SMRT Corp, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, SembMarine, Longcheer, Jurong Tech and Labroy Marine.

(iv) As of 24 May 2006, the analyst, Kenneth Ng who prepared this report, owns and has an interest in the securities in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report.
(d) Inter-Roller Engr., Seksun, Unisteel and Fibrechem.

OK, so much about the report, please seek professional advice before taking action. Not an inducement to buy, sell or hold.

Happy trading. :D

Friday, May 26, 2006

Labrory Marine


Support is at 1.21 base on the previous breakout. One forumer had adviced to avoid this counter, sometime back, well forgotten about it and brought into this counter yesterday morning at high price.

Near term resistance is at 1.36..., Frankly, in a uncertain market out there, TA is not working well for swing trading.

Using it to see the bottom, maybe..., but for now, I turn investor again...

Happy trading. :D

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Risk taking

I'm no risk taker, so play conservatively, no big gain and of course my lossing is not too big too. When I first joint the battlefield, brought a few counters without TA or FA knowledge and purely dependent on the analyst report. All 4 counters including two IPOs have my money all locked in except 2 counters.

I sold two counters at a lost, one for >50% losses and another at breakeven. Just can't sell the rest for two reasons. two counters is turning around, I won't sell, and I won't sell even if it at break even. Another can't sell at all, so have to sleep with it. sigh...

Well still suffer paper losses, sigh whose cares, since I can't sell one of those counter I might just keep it and it will sever as a reminder to me of navie behaviour and mistake I make. Anyway, it is giving out dividend every year, not much, just can't bother it anymore. Just wish that my lucky star will shine on me, and it might just turn around one day.... my big fat hope.

Joining the market without knowledge is definately risk taking and it is very high risk infact. I have learn my lesson by paying fee, next please.

Anyway, Happy trading. :D

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Correction

Current correction is rather strong, it seem to be continuing from last week and have no sign of bottom yet.While it continues it’s sliding (correction), was busying looking at chart for clue on entry point but to no avail. Every chart visited seems to be suggesting the down trend is still in force.

Well, no clear signal, so no play. We could take some risk, but definitely not when the sentiment of the market is poor.

Viewing from the side line, to me alone, the market is leaving room for more down side as it rebound. Therefore one must be clear on objective before entering the market.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Force Selling

Force selling takes place everyday, guess only. With three sessions of down trend and two sessions of rebound last week, guess there will be more force selling in a this correctionthan the usual. Some, if not many, will face their faith this week - force selling.

There is no best time for loading up, nobody could be 100% right. Technical analysis (T.A.), news, company's announcement and Fundamental Analysis may provide some answers, howeverm nobody with the right frame of mind dare to provide guarantee it work seamlessly. Read somewhere in "The Edge", FA and TA will not work in a maket similar to this one with so much uncertainty, it advice to stay at teh sideline till the rust settled.

To takes advantages of the current corection, betting on the ability to hold is one strength, many savvy trader and long term investor is on the standby to load up already. This week? I'm not sure for sure.

Anyway, Happy trading. :D

Thursday, May 18, 2006

CG Tech


CG Tech had retracted nearly 50% from it peak at $0.43. Currently, trading below 50 days MA, price had touches 100 days MA at a low of $0.30 which is the support currently.

On negative note, the stochastic and MACD yet to give a strong signal for an upturn, additional to these indicators, the daily chart pattern is rather a concern. (Not shown)

Given that the weekly chart downward pressure is still rather strong, if current support is broken, will be seeing the movement of price to $0.25 or lower, support is likely to be at $0.29, $0.275 and $0.26.

On a positive note, the selling for the last few days are not as strong and volume drying up quickly, RSI look encouraging too. If the support hold well, it seem to hold well (till the time of this posting) the chances of throwback is high and if the resistance is broken, it may invalid the daily chart pattern and change the course of weekly chart as well.

If I were to buy… likely to que at 0.30 or slightly below it at 0.29-5, and would likely to have some spare for additional purchase if the price trend downward.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

"Falling Knife"

During the correction, was reading more often then usual in a forum besides checking my holding, one interesting subject was highlighted by well intended former: “catching a falling knife.”

Was pondering, when should the phase be use?

  1. One buying into a relatively strong company during a correction?
  2. When a price decline due to weak earning?
  3. When the fundamental turn from strong to weak?
  4. Weak management?
  5. In a bear market?
  6. When an external environment turned against a company? Example high oil price.
  7. Emotional?
  8. A bear market?
  9. Poor market sentiment?

Anyway, each to our own understanding, to me alone buying selectively during a correction is not catching a falling knife for sure.

Sikali buy salah… :D

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Correction

When I saw my screen covered with red all over, my first reaction is to exit my holding immediately and take my profit.

Correction contiunes today, I should have reacted yesterday, but I didn't, fews of my holding is suffering now. hm...should I exit all or continue to hold? A basic question which can be answer easily. Think I just sell the weak stocks and hold on the stronger one...

Reviewing on those weak stock, when it's at it lowest point...., I was holding on...so why am I selling now? For the stronger stock, not much to worry about. still hodling well although some is in the negative zone. "Go shopping"......, let see

sembmarine, starhub, singtel, captaland, keppel land, raffles education... check what on offer first...

Monday, May 08, 2006

Bearish & Bullish Rejection

Bearish Rejection, several candles with long upper shadow (wick) or real body top at or around the same price level on a top trend (uptrend). Such candle formation has a bearish implication. Sys Access is being use as an example in my posting and for my learning eperience..

Comfort Delgro is the reverse of Sys Access. In a down trend a bullish rejection formation may form with several candles lower shadow or real body touches the same price level or near the same level. It has a bullish implication.

Above mentioned is not a standard in traditional candlestick analysis, according to the author (Louise Bedford) of the book “The secret of Candlestick Charting”, however she found that the concept is invaluable in her own trading.

It will be too naive to say that the trend will reverse once this formation is spotted, but won’t it be nice to know the possible implication when one spotted it and be alert to a possible change of trend?

Not an expert in TA and would rather confine my understanding to myself. However, injustice is done to the author who highlighted her observation and sharing it in her book with a keen interest in seeing people with the same interest to succeed, trading or investing.

I might not be able to explain properly or had misinterpreted what the author had shared, therefore, for those who are keen in knowing the detail, may consider getting the book for yourself at any major bookshop. (Title and author name highlighted.)

Note: I'm not comission to promote this book, just sharing.
ISBN code: 1-876627-28-X

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Stmford Tyres

Resistance at 0.605, support at 0.565. ....sigh, feel so sleeply, what to said....

For the short term, weekly and daily chart sguggesting a positive outlook and that uptrend is intact.

Not vested.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Comfortdelgro -Bullish rejection, Sys Acceess - Bearish rejection


Sys Access is a total opposite of Comfort Delgro. A strong resistance is formed as show in the chart. A strong breakout from this resistant will enable it to test 0.195 resistant and may be establishing new high, but for now it’s still everyone guesses.



The market had shown rejection of lower price for Comfort Delgro. It can be interpreted as the seller unwillingness of selling their holding for anything that is lower than 1.59 as show in the chart.