Patrick Stock Reading

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Rate hike expected

Extract: Federal Reserve policy-makers started a two day meeting yesterday. Markets is expecting a quarter percent point rise to 5.25 percent. However, Washington (reuters) reported that interest rate futures indicate a small chance of half points rasie.

On a poistive note, some analysts pointed out the Fed has ended several previous rate hike cycles with increases of that scale. But it had also highlighted that there is clear evidence of a slowing economy, and many economists believe the odds of a half point boost are slim. They are likely to focus on language use in the policy statement to express concern over inflation. If so, another hike is likely to on the card.

Okay, the expert are telling us, it is likely to be 0.25 rate hike and another on August due to concern over inflation. On the other hand, half point rate hike have a slim chance too, some analyst thinks it is good, as it may be an end to the rate hike cycle where many rate hike ended in such a scale previously.

Now what? may be @
0.25 market is expecting - so there are selling but may not be strong
0.50 market may dump, but since many rate hike ended at 0.50 increase previously, it may be good to monitor closely for some quality buying.

what will I do? Don't know leh... oops!!! ;P

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Averaging down? sellng at lost?

When some asked, can average down? My reply to them is I discourage averaging down as we do not know how low is low and that's my only reason.

What if, I cut my lost when I was wrong about the price and buy back the same number of shares at a lower price, is this another way of averaging down... I asked myself. I don't know you judge for yourself using the example below:

Buy ABC 10 lots @ 0.945 = $9482.99
Sell 10 lots @ 0.760 = $7573.47
Realised Profit and lost = -$1909.53
Buy back 10 lots @0.750 = $7526.81
Diff. +/- from buy back = $47.28
Net loss = -$1862.25
Aveage unit cost/share = $0.85049

I may need to sell when price is up slightly and buy again when it's down to further average down. The question is; It's worth the trouble? What if immediately after my selling the price start to move? That's the risk!

Kind of funny right? why not cut lost, instead of having a funny way of averaging down. Let 's put it this way it present a way for mistake correction, and for trade with a long term view.
As to cut lost - it is more for a new trade for day trading or contra.

For some, may be I speak for myself, I may not be willing to sell my lost making stock. The above present another alternative for me to recoup my losses. Frankly, once a loss making stock is sold, chances of buying it back is rather slim. I know, because I tried it; buying and selling within a price range, I stop after one round. Reason: It is a long process ....

Each to your own decision.

Happy averaging

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

SembMarine


There are some buy call for this counter. Well, not a bad call from my point of view, at least this stock have an "inflated" (comfirmed) order book and a clear predictable earning for all to see, any additional order will definately strengthen it, thus reasonable and it could be a defensive stock.

TA alone, it seem to me there is some selling going on for the pasted days and it is quite uniform. To put it squarely, may be some bigfish is selling or pushing the price down. The last three sessions had causes the price to trade below 100days MA. Near term support at 2.58, if this level is broken, I will be a little concern of the downward pressure and will be monitoring closelybetween 2.00 - 2.58 ;P

Happy Investing. :D

Friday, June 09, 2006

TA skill Review?

The current down turn in the board market has causes many to lost much in the market, and I'm not spared. While I was thinking of shorting, I did nothing. This reminded me when I posted STX PO about it possible downtrend in the pasted.

Will I go into shorting? What is my objective? Forget it, I have myself to blame for not doing what I needs to do.

Visited a few forums and saw some posting about the uselessness of TA when the market is trending down. I'm not sure how true it is?

Read about canslim, the author highlighted that joining the stock maket without the knowledge and ability to analyze a chart is as good as a blind walking in the street without a walking stick. Tosing our chart in thrash bin.., well we might need to reconsider...

Generally, chart are loaded with information (price, volume), indicators (MA, Stochasitcs, RSI, MACD, etc). Ability to read chart pattern will assist us to guess the most likely direction. Yes, I have to agree that it's not fool prove.

In charting, additional tools was added to help us in identify support, resistance, draw trendline for our own alert of possible breakout/breakdown. We may be able to identify the macro trend of a stock whether it is rally distributing, down trending or accumulating. Some charting tool comes with a screening (stock selection) and back testing funtions.

Again me no expert, generally if we had pickup some knowledge and skill is chart analysis, we should be thinking of better it and hopefully when the time is right for our trading style, we could benefit from it.

Don't throw our knowledge and skill away just yet, as long as we're still in the market place.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Red Alert?

G0t kicked out from my office to work under the sun. No choice, agree or disagree also have to work, thus can't monitor the market actively, but my notebook follows me where I goes, and during break time, I will peep into the market for a quick feel.

Well, the feel is rather..., heard that one Lawer had ran away with millions of $ mm...pondering..., "Kay kay"(example) he play... oops!! better keep my mouth shut, anyhow say can be sue.

Let list basic some points on my trading. I'm no expert hor, so if you think it is nonsense, you're right, if you think it is not, you're not wrong too, anyway, if you dislike what you're reading, don't be upset, just bolt it by clicking the "X" in the center of the red color square box. It is located at the top right hand corner of your browser. alternatively click on the "back" icon also can... :D

trade without emotion
don't fall in love with any stock
need to sell, sell it. a gain is a gain, locked it in, even if accumulating
takes own time to accumulate.
really need to buy it back, check and double check B4 buying, (naked short is not buying, it's covering)
don't rush, especially buying
in a bull market take my time to sell.
learn as much as I can, and keep learning

As retail trader/investor my winning and lossing will not be that significant as compare to "Big FISH". For every bid of 1000 shares
@ 0.05 = $50
@ 0.02 = $20
@ 0.01 = $10
@0.005 = $5

look at the BIG PICTURE, not that tiny lost or gain.

and yes enternal environment that affect our market. Fed rate, CPI, manufacturing output, war, oil price and blar blar..

oops!!! there are points above I didn't follow. ok next time...