Patrick Stock Reading

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

oil price $120

I once told my manager, somewhere during March 08 or earlier. Oil price will continue to increase and it is likely to be around $120 lastest by June 08. How the hell I know, I don't know, flankly, it is just that some guru mentioned abut the possibility of oil will reach that level, and I merely informing the manager the cost of running our own transportation will be going to be expensive if the guru analysis came truth. D he received the message, maybe not, or may be he is powerless against the management.

there was an article about increasing cost in the logistics done by a professor in hong kong. I was half year late when reading it, and it is about 5 to 6 years back. in the article, it mentioned about higher cost of operation in the industry, mainly due to investment in technology, automated equipments, wages increases, competitior pricing, little or no trade barrier (for new comers) and the possibility of higer oil price. Can't recalled what he had suggested, generally, combines of resources, multi-tasking, paperless operation, and automate processes, better CS and outsourcing, use of internet... etc

are we there yet...???

I was taking charge of transportation then, and outsourced it, maybe I'm ahead of time and management don't see the impact of raising cost. it was reverse back after me transferred out for a year or two. they saw the cost increases sinces 2005 $45 to $70, $80 and now >US110. There is no sign of weakening as least for short term. If we were just to consider the needs of developing country, example china, india, russia isn't it good enough to conclude that the oil price will continue its rally....said US$180.00 per barrel or maybe US$200.00.

I'm no pro, so don't marked my words, merely just guessing.

Saturday, April 19, 2008


Still monitoring on cpl, basically to recovered those losses, not much actually, but I would like to see my $ back. I didn't monitor it for months, because I believes than that it will returned to it high and beyond. However, this those seems to be. When oneway doesn't seem to work, it good to look for another that will work.

It just another fews 10cents before I break even and into the black again. For this counter, I shall said I'm just lazy no home work on FA totally. just takes a look on TA using only MA and sto. for buy and sell. at time may be MCAD. of course with some consideration of sentiment, generally market movement and lots of talking to myself. I 'll be selling it and buying it again when time is right after the sale. As for the CD... I may just ignore it.

vested, please do your homework, because my view is definately different from your.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

loss cutting con`t

Was lucky to`be able to buy back those share i sold, because the order was placed at last mintues and it was just one bit above the intraday low. Did`t expect to be filled but it did. Well, don`t know why, think that ther "bull" and "bear" is having a tug of war. whatever it is, just benefit from the selldown; losses so far had considerably recovered to almost 50% , still far from beakeven, but at least am recovering and still working on thes two lots that is in the red

buy 8.25
sold 6.91
buy 6.24
on those holding that is in trhe green zone...nothing much to talk about it. forget it.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Cutting Losses Con`t

As expected, the price continue to trend down sine my last posting. Generally, it seem to me that the trend will continue tomorrow, some how a little unsure, it seem that there is an invisible hand trying to keep the price up. On closing bell, the match was five bit up on last traded price. Have to monitor closely, don`t wish to miss the sudden reversal, may it will not happen at all and continue it down trending, which is what i hope to see and so that i could execute what i had planned on friday or next week ...buying back what i had sold

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Cutting Losses

This is my beloved counter, my last purchase was at its high, very high... Overall, still profiting, but with my last purchase, it reduces those profit significantly.

Last week, decided to realised parts of the losses on this counter (my last purchase) and to load it again when it goes down. Started monitoring and guess luck is on my side, open the chart and the frist thing I saw is the counter was over brought... (though not an expert) genreally, it tells that the counter is likely to go down, now this is betting...I bet that the price will continue to trend up althrough it was largely overbrought, this is with consideration of the market news saying that the overall sentiment is returning and that the negative news have little effect on retail investor because most of the bad news have been factored into the price of most counters.

I held back my selling untill yesterday...It was sold at a high price I though, but the price continue to rallied another 9 cents when the closing bell rung.

ok loh...who can predict right? pick up my calculator and started to work on the price I should be buying. got it.

Was monitoring closely today, it crosses my mind in the morning that I shouoldn't be too worried about it due to the overbrought show on it chart, but just felt uncomfortable about not monitoring it, it went down 0.31 cents today.

Not to sobo myself, start to plot on the chart and found 3 supporting line if all support lines were to be broken I would be very happy because it means that my losses is narrow to only a couple of hundred. With my buying after it broke all supporting line, I'll be on my way to breakeven shortly and into the profitting zone.

I should do this earlier, wondering why I'm not doing it?